Those of you who got a copy of out free, “How to be a Profitable Punter” and are using the Horse Racing System that we give away in our report should have made some money on Imperial Commander which dropped from a morning opening of 16/ to 9/1 at the off. If you have not got a copy of the report you can get it by going to
http://www.premierbettingclub.com/sign-up.html

Another great finish yesterday was in a four horse race in the 1.15 at Haydock. Mr Thriller ridden by Tom Scudamore lead for mot of the way but in the later stages Starluck pulled alongside and then made for home. To 8/15 favourite looked cooked, but somehow Tom got him up in the last 100 yards to win by ½ length. If you missed the race do go and take a look on the web at the video replay it is worth it. Who said you need big fields to make exciting racing.

How did the Morning Line team get on with their charity bets yesterday?
Mickey Fitzgerald tipped Fix the Rib which won at 3/1 and Alistair Down chipped in with SA Suffit which also came up at 6/4. The other 4 all went down but unfortunately Barrie Dennis’s Bismark did not and won at 9/4.

If you had backed all the 6 charity bets for £10 level stake yesterday you would have come out with £5 profit or around a ROI of 8%. Lets see how they do next week.

Now I hear the pub calling.

Watching the show today gave me a bit of an idea. Each week all the presenters
And their guests are given a £50 charity bet. Now surely with such knowledgeable
racing people these should be pretty good tips. Or are they? For the next few weeks
am going to check them out to see how successful they are.

Here are todays: Mickey Fitzgerald Fix the Rib 2.05 Ascot
John Francom Katchit 2.35 Ascot
Alistair Down SA Suffit 12.45 Haydock
Nick Luck Noakarad de Verzee 12.55 Ascot
Tom Lee Any The Wiser 3.45 Ascot
Leslie Graham Space Telescope 1.05 Huntingdon

Barry Dennis’s Bismarck is Zaynar 2 35 Ascot

My own fancy today is Kauto Star. Not much of a price and falling ll the time but I will be very sorry if he does not win today.

Now, I can sit back and watch just about every race in the UK, as well as those from Ireland, USA and Australia on Satellite TV all from the comfort of my favourite armchair. The two suppliers “At The Races” and “Racing UK” provide an excellent service. However there are some distinct differences in style and presentation provided by the 2 services.

At The Races has the distinct advantage at present as it provides a free service whereas Racing UK with the demise of Santana reverted back to a paid service which costs £20 a month. However, as they tend to cover more of the Grade 1 tracks and top racing events this may be worth it.

Some of the pre race interviews especially the early bird discussions with trainers and jockeys provided by At The Races are very revealing. However, I feel that possibly Racing UK has the better racing presenters, but that is very much a personal choice. Matt Chapman for instance is rapidly becoming to my mind another John McCRirick

Character, you love him or hate him.

There is also no doubt that www.attheraces.com is rapidly becoming one of the best horse racing web sites online. I also enjoy reading Hugh Taylor’s interesting articles and tips. This particular tipster has had a good record over the past few months.

Do you have any views on the two TV services, which do you prefer and why? We would like to hear your views.

However, the 3.20 bet365.com Novices’ Handicap Hurdle did provide some interest. It was not the actual race but the betting that caught my eye. In the lunchtime review on At The Races a horse called Hiddensee was highlighted as a mover whose price had dropped from the around 33/1 down to single figures.

This was very surprising considering the horses since November 2007 which read PU, 14/15, PU, PU and PU. Even so the price kept falling. Before the race ATR interviewed the trainer A E Jones who said he had absolutely no idea why the price was dropping like a stone and assured the viewers that it had nothing to do with him or his stable. Even so the price kept falling down to 6/1 at the off.

It was fair to say that Hiddensee never looked as though it was going to feature and was a good last when pulled up before the final fence. Now that got me wondering, how much money does it take on a windy Thursday afternoon to pull a horses price down that much and who and why did anyone think the horse stood any sort of chance of running into a place let alone win?

Gambles like this are not unlike snowballs rolling down a hill. As they progress more and more snow clings and they just get bigger and bigger. If you had been in the bookies yesterday would you have been tempted to have a bet on Hiddensee working on the theory that someone must have known something?

It is worth remembering Matt Chapman’s claim that more drifters win racers than springers. He could well be right.
Slightly more impressive was the run of  Sereth in the TurfTV Betting Shop Service Novices’ Hurdle (Div I). This Barney Curly trained odds on winner never looked in any serious danger and ran out an easy 4 ½ length winner. Could be one for the notebooks.

With Exeter and Kelso going both likely to be heavy today this could place a greater emphasis on horses with plenty of stamina. Hopefully, the meeting at Haydock will go ahead over the weekend and we will be able to see the return of  Kauto Star. I saw an interview yesterday with the trainer of Kauto’s main rival in the race Notre Pere he sounded less than positive. However that could just have been cautious trainer speak as Notre Pere might well relish the possible heavy going much more than Kauto Star. As long as the meeting goes ahead it should be an intriguing clash.

Horse racing systems are very similar; there is no one size fits all. Just because the developer lays down the rules of the system there is nothing to stop you making a few alterations to make the system fit you.

One of the most common rules, especially in systems that promote lay betting on the betting exchanges is an upper price limit. For instance it may say “if the odds are 8.0 or above, no bet.”  This could be just an arbitrary decision by the developer or it may have been proved during testing that this was the safest upper limit. If you do not like the idea of a liability of £70 just to win £9.50(allowing for Betfair commission) then set your own upper limit, one that you are comfortable with.

One of the most important keys to successfully using horse racing systems is to keep records. I know it can be boring but you need to know what horses you have backed, what was the result and how profitable or otherwise is the system. You can use these records to possibly add extra filters into your system. For instance if you notice that more often than not when the system highlights a 3 year old filly as the bet you lose. So you add a new filter into the system so that you never bet on 3 year old fillies.

Horse racing systems are not set in stone and there is no reason why you cannot add your own inputs. For instance one system that I use highlights favourites that are likely to lose. Now I have noticed that when a horse is odds on and the second horse in the betting is 7/1 or greater the favourite more often than not wins. So I have added my own filter so that when this happens it is no bet.  Since I applied the filter there would have been 17 bets of which 5 lost the race and 12 won which had I laid them would with a £10 level stake resulted in £47.50 gained and £97 lost giving an overall lose of

£51.50. So just by applying my own extra filter I have saved myself over £50.

So don’t be afraid to tinker with a horseracing system. But do remember whatever you do, test, then test again before risking your money. Remember, if the system is sound it will still be winning next month and the month after so you don’t have to jump in today.

I always liken it to being a city trader; they will have a portfolio of shares some risky high yield, others less profitable but more gilt edged. If you are looking to make a regular income either part or full time you should consider doing the same.

I know that you might think it is hard enough to find one good system let alone 3 or 4. Believe me they are out there, apart from Premier Betting Clubs own system which provides daily lay advise there are several others that we have tested and found to offer good returns. You will find details of them elsewhere on the site.

Whether you are using your own systems or ones that you have got from elsewhere it is best to have some variety.  If one of your systems highlights short price favourites to lay it would make no sense to have a second system in your portfolio that did the same thing. If the favourites had a good day that could be 2 of your systems down the tube, A good portfolio might consist of a lay the favourite system, a place lay or bet system,  an odds based system and perhaps a historical based system i.e. trainers past records or something similar.

My current portfolio, which does change from time to time, depending upon performance is:

Premier Betting Club (obviously)

Prize Lay by Eddie McClugg

Dodgy Favourites by Paul Fowlie

Easy Lay  by Chris Wigg

I am also currently paper testing a couple of other systems one for place lays and the other a specialised draw related system.

It has taken me a couple of years to build up this portfolio but it works for me and spreads the risk around. I recommend you try the stock broker approach. Good Luck

Whether that definition of how ante post betting began is true or not I could not be certain but the story has been around for a long time. That should tell you one thing; it has been around so long that it must be profitable to the bookmakers or else it would not have lasted.

These days there are really two types of ante-post betting. The first is traditional placing of bets on Classic and big Handicap races well in advance of race day. In the case of Classic races such as the Derby the book can be open for up to a year before the race. The second type of ante-post is sometimes known as the “early prices” and is advertised in the racing pages on the day of the race.

Whilst there are tales of phenomenal wins by people who have bet ante-post for the average punter with no “inside information” it can be a minefield. It is hard enough to find winners when all you have to worry about is the other runners. With anti post betting you really are betting blind as you have no certainty that the horse will even run in the race. In most cases your bet is struck run or not which means that if the horse does not run you still lose the bet.  Some horses will inevitably become injured or suffer some other setback before race day and have to be withdrawn.

If you place your ante-post bet weeks before the race you will have no idea of what the ground conditions will be. Unfavourable going could lead to your horse under performing or even being withdrawn by the trainer.

The big carrot for the punter is the considerably bigger prices that you can get ante-post. Personally, I would rather wait for race day to place my bet. There are enough uncertainties in racing and at least if I back on the day I can be fairly sure of getting a run.

The “early prices” offered by the bigger bookies are often for the big Saturday Handicaps often sponsored not unsurprisingly by the bookmakers. These are always

difficult races to assess and often throw up big priced winners. Normally, to get the advertised price if you are a credit customer you have to be quick. However, some bookmakers hold the prices in their shops for the first hour their shops are open.

I tend to avoid bookmaker sponsored handicaps purely because of the difficulty of the races, there are easier pickings elsewhere. Never the less, if you have a strong fancy in such a race it can pay you to grab the “early price” if you can.

You will see facts such a number of runners and winners. This can be further broken down by year into more specific details as record for different types of race and prize money won. Below this are details of their last 20 or 30 runners or rides.

Information like this can be very useful especially if you are planning to lay a horse on Betfair. For instance there is a quite well know Northern jockey whose win rate over the last 5 years is less than 5%. This means that if you had laid every horse he had ridden over the last 5 years you would have had a 95% success rate. In his last 26 runs he has had 1 winner at 7/1.

In fairness most of the horses he has ridden have been pretty high prices and you have to be pretty brave to lay horses that go off at 66/1. Never the less this is useful information that could prove profitable. I shall not name him but if you use the statistical summary I am sure that you will be able to find him.

If you are looking for either horse race winners or losers you ignore statistic at your own peril. For instance less 1 in 5 favourites win 3 year old + handicap races at Ascot but 58% of favourites win 4 year old + handicaps at Bath. Surly this must be useful information to punters.

Someone once said that “there are lies, damn lies and statistics” and it is true that statistic can be slewed to support practically any theory or idea. However, in the case of horse racing they can prove to be another useful tool in the armoury of anyone trying to make money on horse racing.

The first few systems I purchased were to put it quite plainly absolute rubbish. After that I bought what was potentially quite a good system except it required a doubling up sequence following a losing bet. Of course I now know the folly of this kind of staking plan.

After this I had some luck and came across a plan that did really well and I started to profit. That’s when I learnt my next lesson if you are using a system don’t go off trying to recover any losses. One day the horse in the first race I laid romped home at around 4.0.

No problem on the TV the pundit indicated that the favourite in the next race was a bit dodgy so although it was not a system bet I laid it to recover the losses of the first race. Yes you’ve guessed it the favourite slaughtered his field and now I am well down. Next race there is a big odds on shot. “A penalty kick” says the TV pundit. I put the rest of my bank on this 1.7 and when it wins I will be back in profit. At least I did not have long to wait for the outcome, the favourite fell at the second fence.

There is a lesson on how to wipe out your bank in about 40 minutes.

Now I have one golden rule and that is I never bet outside of the systems that I am using. But that does not mean that I follow the systems blindly. I have put my own safeguards and filters in. For instance the Premier Betting Club recommend that you do not lay if the odds are over 10.0. I have a much lower threshold and will not normally lay a full point over 5.0 and ½ point between 5.0 and 8.0. Over that is no bet.

I also have some rules of my own about odds on runners. Irrespective of what a system tells me I will not lay if the favourite is odds on and the second favourite is 7.0 or higher. By applying these extra filters I do miss some losers but equally so on occasions I have gained. I remember recently the Premier Betting Club was having a great day and coming to its last selection, which was also the last race of the day was showing a 5 points profit. Its selection in the last race was 9.0 and using my self imposed filter I ducked the race. The horse Miss Ferney won at 15/2 and 9.0 on Betfair.

Although tipster services and systems will do most of the work for you, never stray outside of your own personal comfort zone with either the odds or the amount you are waging. In the end it is your call, your decision.