by Dave Bromley on July 9, 2010
Yesterday was not a good day for me in horse racing terms. I had 3 bets, two Dutching bets in which I backed 3 horses in a race to win a race and the one Dee Dee Lay. The first Dutching bet was won by a 7/1 shot coming from nowhere to beat my selections who finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th. The second was won by a horse backed in from 4th favourite to joint just before the off which would not have been so bad if that horse had not also been my lay bet.
There was a time when a day like yesterday would have really got to me. However I now take a reasonably relaxed view because I know that there will always be bad days. In racing no matter what system or method you use there will be setbacks. If you are serious about making money from your betting the sooner you accept this fact the better.
In Lesson 3 of Michael Wilding’s excellent course Puntology he talks about the Emotional Reaction to Losing (ERL). In simple terms these means that you have to have to be prepared for set backs and take a detached view. Certainly none of us like losing but providing you have a reliable system, a sensible staking plan and a reasonable sized betting bank it will only be a minor setback. You will live to bet another day.
The real danger of having a bad day is that you will be tempted to forsake your systems and try some rash bets to recover your losses. This is possibly the quickest way to see your entire betting bank disappear.
It is far more productive to take a step back and see if there was anything that you missed in making your selections. If your bank has shrunk significantly do you need to readjust your staking level? Horse race betting is a continual learning curve no matter how long you have been betting.
Yesterday may have been poor but today is a whole clean new sheet. Don’t abandon a system just because of one bad day, look back through your records is it showing a profit overall? Successful punters do not judge their success on a daily basis but on how much they make over a year. That is what is important.
This is the lat day the blog will be posted on this site. From Tomorrow, 10th July the blog will be available at http://www.premierbettingclub.com
by Dave Bromley on July 8, 2010
I am going to be honest with you; this morning when I woke up I had a pretty good idea what I was going to write about this morning. I had a piece planned and it only needed to be bashed out on the computer but then I read my emails. There was such an eye catching offer that I feel I have to tell you about it straightaway. Today’s planned article can wait for another day.
The email had some fantastic news for me. For just £24.95 I could buy a horse racing system for backing horses that had an amazing 84.7% success rate and could make me a £231,760 profit. But that is not all it promised me no long losing runs and it assured me that I did not need any experience. I could forget those “tiny” wins they would all be massive profits from now on.
If the system is all that is claimed for it then racing as we know it is finished, the bookmakers will be reduced to begging and we will all discover that the streets of London really are paved with gold.
I am not saying that I disbelieve any of the claims but if the promoters would like to send me a copy of their system I would be quite happy to independently test it and sing its praises to the rooftops if they are proved true.
This system, which I shall not name because why give publicity to something we have not tested, will be no worse than many others.
The Internet is full of advertisements for systems making incredible claims. If I could be sure that 87% of my win bets would win you would not find me telling anyone else about it or selling my “secret” for £25.
The reason so many people are persuaded to part with their money is twofold. Firstly, they do not have the knowledge of horse racing to realise that such claims are impossible. Secondly, there is something inside of most of us that wish it were possible and that this one might just be the Holy Grail we are looking for.
I never made any real money from horse racing until I stopped chasing dreams. Any success that I have had has been due to study, listening and learning from people a lot wiser than me and, yes, hard work. These days partly thanks to the Internet there is so much knowledge freely or cheaply available. This is what we should be spending out hard earned money on, not pie in the sky dreams.
Tomorrow is the last day the blog will be posted on this site. In future is wil appear at http://www.premierbettingclub.com and you should bookmark that page now.
by Dave Bromley on July 7, 2010
Today is the start of the 3 day Newmarket July Meeting> There is an opportunity to see some of the top 2 year olds in the Group 2 Cherry Hinton. On what we have seen so far Memory looks to have an outstanding chance of coming away with the prize.
In the following Race the Group 1 Falmouth fillies and Mares race the 3 year olds get an opportunity to take on older runners. I was recently reading that in breeding much more emphasis is being placed on speed than stamina. The writer argued that this had the effect of giving the younger horses the advantage with their weight for age allowance in the first half of the season. After July however, this advantage tended to disappear. My own thought is a 3 year old will win this afternoon and the one that I expect to go past the post first is Lily Langtry.
Today I would like to give you a free horse racing system that you might like to take a look at. I have always liked simple systems, providing they work and they could not be more simple than this one. I call it the Magic Four Method but do not let the simplicity fool you, I think this is the strength of the plan. I believe that some system devisers make there efforts unnecessarily complicated so that they can justify the high prices they ask for their efforts.
In this system there are only 4 things to look for:
1. Go to the Racing Post Newspaper or their web site at www.racingpost.com and look for the forecast betting favourite. If joint favourites ignore the race.
2. It must have a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 80 or more.
3. It must be running within 4 days of its last race.
4. It must have won , or be placed 2nd or 3rd in its last race.
If a horse meets these 4 criteria it is the selection.
As with all systems I would recommend you “paper test” it for at least 30 days before you use real money. I think that you should be looking for a 50% success rate with this system to ensure a good profit
I am afraid for the second day running there is no Dee Dee Lay selection.
This blog will move to http://www.premierbettingclub.com after Friday
by Dave Bromley on July 6, 2010
As someone who spends a lot of time trying to develop and test horse racing systems I find it can be very frustrating at times. It all starts off with an idea which can take weeks or months to formulate into a workable system. After all this work you begin the testing phase with each successful selection convincing you that you have found the holy grail and each failure sending you back to the drawing board again.
When developing a system it is important to analyse all unsuccessful bets to try and see if there is any common denominator. If it can be identified, is there a filter that can be added to the new system to improve it. The other problem is that the longer you work on an embryonic system the more attached to it you become. This is the danger period. There may come a time to admit that your baby does not have the potential to grow up into a strong workable system and even after all the work, blood sweat and tears it is time to abandon your offspring.
Yesterday was an interesting case in point, as you know we are publicly testing the Dee Dee Lay system on this web site. This gives everyone access to our test selections. So far I have been reasonably pleased with the results but yesterday our only lay selection of the day won at odds of 8.0 the very maximum that we recommend for the system. This meant a 7 point loss which whilst not catastrophic will mean that we are currently running at a loss for the current month.
Going back over our test so far (since 26th April) one common factor seems to be emerging. The vast majority of our unsuccessful bets have occurred at evening meetings. I touched on this briefly yesterday but I am now more convinced that for many systems it would be best to avoid evening racing. So from today I am adding the following filter to the Dee Dee Lay system, no evening meetings. At present I shall include twilight fixtures in my assessment but will monitor them closely.
The reason why I have given you this insight is to show contrary to popular belief system developers do not just pluck untested ideas out of thin air. The good ones spend a considerable time testing and fine tuning their programs before offering them for sale.
I am doing this testing publicly because so many so called systems on offer today are over the overpriced, over hyped and under tested. I am trying to show that not all systems are like this.
I do not know at the moment whether Dee Dee Lay will wither on the vine or grow to be a fully workable and profitable system. I think this is in the balance at the moment but if it does eventually reach the market place you can be assured it will be a fully tested and proven system.
If it does not work out then it will be back to the drawing board again. Today I have checked and wouldn’t you know the only possible selection is in the 20.20 at Southwell. This means there is no bet today.
by Dave Bromley on July 5, 2010
Recently I was talking to a horse racing system expert who was telling me that he had excluded evening races from his selections as he considered the results were too unpredictable. His systems specialise in pinpointing winning bets and he has generally had a good record over the years. Therefore I was a little surprised when another expert who lays horse to lose on the Betfair Exchange told me exactly the same thing.
I have noticed that with my own favourite lay system that if a horse does win it is often in one of the later evening racing. Usually this is either the penultimate or final races of the evening. In consequence I now discard the last two races at evening meetings from my calculations.
I cannot help wondering if horses are a little like people, there are some “morning” people whilst others are “night” folk. Although I think it might be more that most horses are used to being up and about early in the morning and being tucked up in their stable quite early in the evening. Is it possible that the horses are quite simply tired by 8.30 or 9 pm? And could this have some effect on their form and be the cause of some horses not running up to their best?
I am no horse expert, never having worked in a stable or even ridden a race horse so this is no sort of expert opinion but just a thought. I might well be worth looking back at the last 2 races at evening meetings and see if anything significant appears. I have found that it is odd passing thoughts like this that can often be the key to the development of a good horse racing system.
As far as our Dee Dee Lays were concerned on Saturday it was a day of mixed fortunes. We had 4 selections all of which obliged but unfortunately 2 were outside of our betting limits and so were no bets. The other two selection obliged but Brink was right on the edge of our Maximum odds of 7/1 and although it was at time possible to get odds of under 8.0 it was higher than that at the off so we will call it a no bet.g. There is only one selection today and this is posted in Today’s Selection at www.premierbettingclub.com
Reminder this blog will only appear at www.premierbettingclub.com after Friday
by Dave Bromley on July 3, 2010
Recently there have been a number of horse racing systems produced that rely on either a trainer or jockeys performances on specific courses. I cannot help wondering if these are really true systems and whether they warrant the price that some people are asking for them.
Most of the information can be easily obtained from either the form books or the online version of the Racing Post. I also question how relevant the information is in the long term. I accept that if you had backed every John Gosden 3 year old that runs over a mile to
1½ miles on the Newmarket July course you would have made a profit. He is currently having a 25% success rate in the races and showing a 57 point profit. But there is no guarantee that this rate of success will continue until he retires.
Trends and past statistics may form part of the research when looking for winners but you should not ignore current form. It is a fact that certain trainers will target specific races but unless their horse is good enough it will not win. Factors such as going, distance and past record on the course or at least courses that are similar have to be taken into account.
Just backing a horse because the trainer or jockey has been particularly successful in the past is no way to guarantee winners. Finding potential winners is a little bit like doing a jigsaw, you take all the little pieces and fit them together. Only when you have done that can you see the complete picture.
Having said that there is one runner that interests me today and it is Sir Michael Stouts Mushreq who runs in the 8.40 at Nottingham tonight. This is the horses first handicap and it has been running distances of up to a mile but tonight she tackles 11/4 miles. She was an expensive purchase at $850,000 and she could under her capable trainer turn out to be a good horse. Well worth watching tonight.
Both of our Lay bets yesterday were successful but outside of our suggested price limits so became no bets. Today we have 4 selections which you will find in the Todays Selection part of the blog at http://www.premierbettingclub.com
THis blog will be moving to http://www.premierbettingclub.com very soon
by Dave Bromley on July 2, 2010
How many times have you received a letter or email offering to let you into “the secret” only known to a few that can make you wealthy? Often it will go on to explain that this “secret” was stumbled across by accident but has made the person who discovered it very rich. In racing circles this “secret” will be wrapped up in some sort of racing “system” that is guaranteed to show you a big profit.
If you want to know what this “secret” is all you have to do is send this already very rich man some money which can vary from £5 up to several thousand depending on how greedy this very rich man is. The theory is that when you have learnt the secret you will also become a very rich man (or woman). Great idea, just one small snag “the secret” does not work and you end up losing more money while the very rich man goes on getting richer.
Today I am going to end this cycle by telling you the real secret on how to become a more successful punter and get a better return for your investments. I will not promise to make you rich but a winning punter is always happier than a losing one.
The real secret to successful punting is knowledge. I am not talking about inside information or tips from the stables but real knowledge about racing. You can gain this knowledge in many ways, by reading articles and books, watching some of the racing discussion programmes on cable TV and searching the Internet.
I consider myself reasonably knowledgeable on the sport but I am now on my 44th week of the 52 week Puntology course. It is written by Michael Wilding and is designed to teach you everything you need to know about horse race betting. It comes weekly as an email report that covers every aspect of backing horses. In a way I am disappointed that I am now getting to the end of the course because I really look forward each week to receiving the email. I recommend to get full value from the course you carry out the suggested assignments and print off the 52 reports as they build up into an invaluable reference work. To learn more about the Puntology course go to http://bit.ly/aSn48Z
Yesterday Dee Dee Lay had 3 lay bets (The 4th was a non runner) and they were all successful giving us a profit on the day of 2.85 points. Todays selections are available at www.premierbettingclub.com
From 7th July this blog will only be available at http://www.premierbettingclub.com
by Dave Bromley on July 1, 2010
I have been advocating a reduction in the number of race meetings for some time now. As chance would have it circumstances have forced the BHA to consider reducing the number of meeting in 2011 by 250. This will mean 1240 meetings over the year which is an average of 3 or 4 meetings a day.
What has brought this about is the reduction in the income from the Betting Levy. A drop of £15 million means the BHA can no longer fund the 250 fixtures that it has been supporting. Whilst I am still in favour of a fixture reduction it is a pity that Kempton and Foss Las have to be the two courses that will bear the brunt of the cuts, Kempton possibly losing up to 72 meetings including the popular Twilight Evening Meetings. The final decision will be made at the BHA meeting in a fortnight’s time put short of a sudden influx of cash it looks a done deal.
The card at Perth will have a big Irish presence today, there are 24 horse from over the Irish Sea due to run today. In recent years Perth has become a happy hunting ground for Irish trainers One trainer who does particularly will is Gordon Elliott who has Riverscape in the 2.20 with Paul Carberry riding. The favourite in the race Beidh Tine Anseo who is trying for a four timer was due to run yesterday but was withdrawn because of the going. Conditions seem the same today so whether it will actually run or not is open to question.
There were no Dee Dee Lays yesterday but there are 4 today.
Which can be viewed at www.premierbettingclub.com
by Dave Bromley on June 28, 2010
Those people who thought that the O’Brien stable was not firing on all cylinders saw that theory shot out of the water when 3 of his horses filled the first three places in the Irish Derby. I am sure that Johnny Murtagh the jockey of the winner Cape Blanco was relived that he made the right choice. Murtagh could have ridden any of the five O’Brien runners but after much consideration opted for the son of Galileo.
Today is a very average day of racing with four meetings around the country. As we approach July it might be a good idea to take a look at the 2 year old juvenile flat races. By now most of the new crop has had at least one racecourse outing and the form can be more easily assessed. July is one of the best months for 2 year old favourite backers providing you select the right type of races.
The best races that favour the favourite are Maiden and Stakes which produce 42% and 41% of winning favourites respectively. The races to avoid are Handicaps (27%) and Selling Handicaps (16%). Another aspect to look at is which courses the race is being run on. Brighton (44%), Carlisle (46%) and Chester (47%) are particularly favourable whilst Foss Las (25%) but this is only based on 8 races and Ascot (33%) are best avoided.
Of course if you just back 2 year old favourites blindly you will almost certainly lose money. However, this can be a good starting point for you as you study the form. My approach would be to find a suitable race and then look closely at the form. The favourite should have finished in the first 3 in its previous race and it would be a plus if it had won a race in the last 30 days.
After July the percentage of winning favourites starts to drop off as it gets towards the end of the season when it drops down to 34%. So there is no doubt that July is the month to take a serious look at the 2 year old juveniles.
Three successful Dee Dee Lays on Saturday and we are well on the way to recovering Fridays loss. Today there are 2 selections which have been posted to the Todays Selections area of www.premierbettingclub.com. I am also pleased to say that we seem to have overcome the problems that we were having with a couple of the browsers so you should be able to access the site with no problems.
by Dave Bromley on June 26, 2010
There is a really attractive race on the card at Newcastle today, the Northumberland Plate or “Pitmans Derby”. This two mile race has attracted a field of 21 runners and promises to be a really interesting race.
As I write this the Favourite Deauville Flyer from Tim Easterby’s yard is being well back and is currently 4.5 points clear of the second favourites and could quite possibly be even shorter before the race off time at 3.05. Now there is no doubt about Deauville Flyers ability and it may even win today but can you say that in a field such as there is today that 3/1 or 7/2 will really be a true representation of the horses chance?
If you look at the tipsters selections in the Racing Post today for this race you will see that out of the field of 21 runners the tipsters have selected 10 potential winners between them. This hardly seems to be reflected in the betting where a price of 5/1 or 6/1 would have seemed nearer the mark.
It is very easy to get swept along with the hype when the Racing Post features the horse on its front page; the Morning Line tips it and highlights the horse as the “market mover”. No doubt many
Punters will simply go with the flow and include the Flyer in their bets today. I am not going to say it can’t win it may well do but at its current odds it does not represent value for money.
Consider the trainers quote “Deauville Flyer should run very well. He has won on good-firm but ideally wants it good or slower.” Then also consider the fact that only 1 favourite has won the race in the last 10 years and that 7 of the last 10 winners were priced at 12/1 of greater. All of a sudden 3/1 or 7/2 may not seem such great value.
The Barry Dennis Bismark today is Himalya in the 2.00 at Newcastle. Todays Dee Dee Lay selections can be found at http://www.premierbettingclub.com. Some readers may have had trouble accessing th site on Internet Explorer or AOL but we are working on the problem. It appears to be working fine on the Firefox browser.
