by Dave Bromley on March 10, 2010
At first the ability to lay horses to lose on Betfair was seen by many as the way to a quick fortune. Overtime this has not really proved the case and a lot of punters, after an initial burst of enthusiasm have abandoned lay betting.
When the first betting exchanges were launched in April 2000 it heralded a new dawn in gambling especially in the case of horse racing. The basic concept was that instead of betting with a bookmaker the bet was struck between two punters with the exchanges acting as “go between”.
In the UK punters also had to come to terms with using decimal odds instead of fractions. However, the big change was the fact that for the first time it was possible not only to back a horse to win or be placed but also to lay it to lose. This was a totally new concept and one that has become increasingly popular during the last decade.
It is often pointed out that it is far easier to select a loser than to find a winner. Consider in a fourteen runner race only one horse can win but there will be thirteen losers. So one assumes that a great number of gamblers have made huge sums backing horses to lose. But strangely enough that does not appear to be the case as Betfair report only a very small percentage of its millions of users make more than £15,000 per annum from their betting activities.
The drawback with laying horse to lose is that if your horse does win you will have incurred a liability. For instance if you lay a horse for £10 that is price at 3.0 (2/1) and it wins you have to pay out £20. In the event of the horse had being priced at 11.0 (10/1) you would then have to pay £100. In either case if the selection did lose you would win just £10 (£9.50 after paying Betfair commission). You could of course restrict yourself to laying just short priced horses but they statistically tend to win more often. If you concentrate on higher priced horses they may win less often but when they do your liability is considerably higher. It is also worth noting that for the outsiders the Betfair odds are usually considerably larger than the bookies starting price odds.
On Betfair the prices tend to be around 20% above those offered by the bookmakers. Of course you also have to take into consideration the 5% commission charged by the exchanges. If you are thinking of trying lay betting another point to consider is that you will have to lodge enough money with the exchange to cover any liability that you might incur. For instance if you laid £10 on a horse to lose priced at 11.0 you would have to have at least £100 in your exchange bank to cover the bet in the event of the horse winning.
If you think the risk of possibly losing £100 just to try and make £9.50 then lay betting may not be for you.
by Dave Bromley on March 9, 2010
I am not a particularly religious person but the other night there was an interesting question in our pub quiz. “Who is the patron saint of gamblers?” Apparently the answer is St Cayetano. Cayetano became known as the Patron Saint of Gamblers because people would bet him a rosary or blessed candle that he would not do some special favour for them. Saint Cayetano gave his family fortune to help those in need, and dedicated his life to the care of the sick. His Feast Day is August 7.
How much credence you can give to patron saints is open to question, after all St George , the patron saint of England may well have never existed and even if he did it is certain that he never stepped foot on “this green and pleasant lands.” However, I can see why gamblers would identify with Cayetano, after all most of them give their family fortunes to the bookies and dedicated their lives to following sick animals.
One thing is certain; if Cayetano is the patron saint of gamblers then he has a very warped sense of humour. For example, someone pointed out to me a tipster who at the moment is having a very successful time and is hot. Now I could bring his hot run to a complete full stop by simply backing one of his selections. I know from experience as soon as I put real money down it is curtains for the guy. Remember I am the chap who bought a system that had 28 consecutive winning months, I then paper tested it for two more successful months before taking the plunge. What happened? Two losing months out of the next three. Mind you as we used to say in the RAF, if you can’t take a joke you shouldn’t have joined.
I see that the Premier Betting Clubs Lingfield lay system had a 3 out of 3 success rate yesterday. With only one losing bet since mid-December this is looking good. PBC members can get this system for free if they go to the Members Forum, it is a simple system but worth a look.
Since the news that Solwhit has scoped badly and is a doubtful for next Tuesdays Champion Hurdle the favourite Go Native has hardened to as short as 11/4. Since the favourite has not had a run since Boxing Day and this has to be considered a negative I would not rush to back it at that price. The appalling weather of the last few months has played havoc with many trainers plans for getting pre Cheltenham races into their fancied horses. This has been particularly true in Ireland where they lost a great number of race meetings. If I were to place a bet on the number of Irish winners at the meeting I would be looking at a lower rather than a higher number. Of course as is so often the case I could be completely wrong and be left eating my words come a week on Friday. It is that glorious uncertainty that makes Cheltenham and the Festival meeting the greatest horse racing event in the world.
If you think that you might need St Cayetano’s help to get through Cheltenham there are a selection of items such as keyrings, money clips bearing his image available from www.stcayetano.com . (Personally I shall stick to my lucky rabbits foot, even if it was not so lucky for the rabbit!)
by Dave Bromley on March 8, 2010
Just 8 days to go now and the Cheltenham Festival will be with us. I have just been taking a look at some of the odds on specialist bets for the meeting. I think my favourite is how many pints of Guinness will be drunk during the meeting. The favourite is between 180,001 and 195,000 pints at 9/4. As far as the bookies are concerned it appears that Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh are home and hosed as leading trainer and jockey. I have to admit that odds of 8/15 on Walsh seem a little bit skinny considering what a risky game it is being a jump jockey.
The word from Ireland is that Dunguid will not run in the Champion Hurdle and there is also serious doubt about Solwhit participation after a bad scope. It will be a loss if neither horse can take part as they are currently joint second favourites at 5/1. Go Native at 7/2 is the current favourite. If you follow the trends for the Champikon Hurdle you should be looking for a horse that has run in the last 51 days (11/11) is aged between 6 & 9 (10/11) and won last time out (9/11). The favourite rates on two of those three but is will be 79 days since its last race. Interestingly only 3 runners in the last 30 years have not run since the start of the year.
I see that the Premier Betting Club LIngfield lay system is back performing well. Rick came up with 3 selections today and so far the first two have dutifully obliged. If you have not tried it yet why not take advantage of our special trial offer for just £1 not only will you learn about our Lingfield system but you will receive Rick’s full selection for 14 days. For more information just click the Learn More button at the top left hand side of this page.
by Dave Bromley on March 6, 2010
I don’t know if it is a sign of advancing years but Saturdays seem to becoming around faster each week. At least this weekend we have some excellent racing at Newbury, Doncaster, Kempton and Kelso. Of course most peoples thoughts are on the forthcoming festival meeting but there is enough today to satisfy the most demanding of race goers.
The race of the day for me is going to be the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster. Possol has impressed me and could turn out to be a first class chaser. The ground should suit but is 11.10 to big a weight. Further down the list Wogan looks interesting and I would not dismiss the chances of Air Force One however I think that the going, distance and weight all suit Sue Smiths Mill Side.
It seems almost a certainty these days that when I narrow a race down to 2 potential winners I will plump for the wrong one. I did this yesterday when I opted for Je Ne Sais Plus instead of La Zarrazine who turned out to be the 8/11 winner. However, all was not lost as I backed both the favourite for 1.5 points (because it was odds on) and 1 point on Je Ne Sais Plus.
The idea of betting on two horses in a race is also at the basis of The Follow the Fortune racing system that I have been looking at for the last few days. My initial thoughts on this system can be found at http://bit.ly/aF9t29 .
Although AP McCoy was the guest on today’s Morning Line it was generally a pretty dull program. Apart from Tanya Stevenson and John Francome it was very much a second rate team performing today. Hopefully they are saving the likes of Jim McGrath, Nick Luck and (love him or hate him)John McCririck for the Cheltenham preview programs. It also seems to me a pity they have given up on the practice of having a couple of presenters at the second meeting. I suppose it is all cost cutting again. I suppose really we just have to be happy that there is racing on the terrestrial channels at all.
To finish off Barry Dennis’s Bismark today is Trabolgan in the Newbury 2.25 Greatwood Vetrans. My Bismark is Lordsbridge in the 4.55 at Newbury.
by Dave Bromley on March 5, 2010
I do not know about you but my inbox has been full of Cheltenham related e-mails. It is a bit like Christmas the hullabaloo seems to start earlier each year. This may be in part due to the lack of quality racing this season due mainly to the weather.
The usual clutch of “hot pots” seem to be dominating many peoples thoughts and of course there is always the Kauto Star v Denman riddle to keep interest going. I have already written about the 4 odds on favourites, Kauto Star, Duguid, Mater Minded And Big Bucks. I feel certain that at least one of them will get turned over, but I just wish I knew which one it was going to be.
I have always considered that Cheltenham is all about jumping. This is an undulating course with some of the jumps being taken at speed going downhill. To be successful at Prestbury Park a horse does not only need to be a good jumper it also needs to be a quick one. This is why some very high quality horses are just not able to reproduce their normal form when they run there.
Another important factor in Cheltenham races is stamina, especially if the going is on the heavy side. With the stiff uphill finish on both the old and the new course a horse has to be able to see out the finish. So in theory all you have to do is find fast quick jumpers with bags of stamina and you will clean up at the Festival meeting. Oh, if it was only that simple!
As I write this Newbury has passed an inspection and both it and the Doncaster meetings go ahead. There is one race at Doncaster which particularly interests me. It is the sportingbet.com Mares´ Handicap Hurdle a grade 3 race due to be run at 4.20. There are 2 horses that really catch the eye, La Sarrazine ridden by AP and Je Ne Sais Plus ridden by Sam Thomas. Both are course and distance winners, although in the latter’s case it was won in the stewards room. La Sarrazine is likely to start as favourite even though it is tackling handicap company for the first time. I think it will be a fascinating race and although the females of the species are never the most reliable when it comes to form I am going to side with Je Ne Sais Plus to have just enough to see off the champion jockeys mount.
by Dave Bromley on March 4, 2010
Sorry to be a bit late with todays blog but had to pop along to the doctors. Nothing serious, but it appears that I have a frozen shoulder, must put less ice in the G&T!
Yesterday I mentioned that Roger Purssord’s Follow the Fortune Horse Racing System did not have any past or projected performance data. What I was going on was the material which comes with the system. The sales page has a complete list of the February results plus month by month stats from March last year. The encouraging fact is that they are real statistics that Roger achieved and are not as so many are just back dated information.
I think that when I first read this system I may have seriously under estimated and later today hope to carry out a review as already Follow the Fortune is already showing over 15 point profit this month. If you cannot wait for my review you can find details at http://bit.ly/aF9t29.
On the good side the worst of the winter weather seems to be over and racing is getting back to normal. All we have to do now is keep our fingers crosses for the week after next.
Some years ago I purchased a small book called “Rude and Ribald Racing Rhymes” which was compiled by Janet Benney in aid of the Spinal Injures Association. There is a great little poem in the book, not at all rude or ribald called simply Cheltenham National Hunt Meeting. There is no poet attribution and it is a little dated but still worth an airing:
Just look around you at the crowd, Some dressed smartly, some dressed loud.
Our dear Queen Mum is dressed in pink,
And Mercy’s in another mink.
There’s Hermes scarves and hats from Scotts, And there is the Duke in scarlet socks.
We’ve had the picnic, drunk the wine,
And luckily the weather is fine.
The place is full of friends who’ve come
From far and wide to share the fun
On this the very gem of courses,
Betting on the best of horses…..
Hurdlers, chasers; even hunters.
A glorious heyday for us punters.
Win – or –lose-“Vive Le Sport.”
Next March we’ll all be back for more
by Dave Bromley on March 3, 2010
Jsut to let you know that having gone onto the Follow The Fortune web site back office only accessible after you buy the system there is a full list of the reults fro April 2009.
We will see how it does this month.
by Dave Bromley on March 3, 2010
This week I have received two new systems from Sportsworld Publishing. The first was Mark Layton’s 1000 Points a Year and the second Roger Purssord’s Follow the Fortunes. They are both interesting in their way for two separate reasons.
Mark Layton was the winner of the Sporting Investors Club System Tipping Competition. He won this with his Gamekeeper Turned Poacher Laying system. His new backing system and its claimed result of making over 1000 point profit for each of the last 3 years make sit well worth a look. I am paper testing it and will post the results onto the Premier Betting Club web site. In the meantime if you would like to read my initial impressions visit http://www.horseracingsystemsreview.com
Follow the Fortune is a completely different proposition. Uniquely it is totally devoid of any claims of past performance or future projections. If for no other reason than this I could not resist adding it to my list of sites to be tested. To be honest this system revolves around the horses price and position in the betting market. I have never regarded this as a good starting point for any system. However, I am always willing to be proved wrong and as regular readers to this blog will know this is not an unusual occurrence.
I came across some interesting statistics the other day which I will pass on.Not surprisingly form is the major factor when deciding a horse potential to win its race. Figures show that 65% of all races are won by a horse that finished in the first 6 in its last race. After form fitness seems to be next consideration as 66% of all winners have had a run in the previous 28 days. It is also noticeable that those that have run in the previous 8 to 14 days have a significantly higher success rate than those that ran 15 to 28 days before.
I do not think that this information on its own will help you find many winners but I cannot help wondering if there might not be something that could be developed using it as a starting point. I suspect that there are trainers who regularly send a horse out for a pipe opener and then within the next 8 to 28 days send them out to win. Finding trainers who does this on a regular basis (if they exist) could point you to interesting winners. It is just a thought.
by Dave Bromley on March 2, 2010
Recently I purchased a huge bundle of horse race systems from a fellow Internet horse racing correspondent. The contents of the bundle must have originally been priced at thousands of pounds but I paid just £30 for the collection. Earlier today I was watching a video online where another guy was offering a collection of over 40 systems that he had purchased over the years for just £10. Now this has actually got me wondering.
If you buy a horse racing system then do you have the right to then sell it to someone else? I am not an expert in copyright law but I would have thought not. Yet if you go to Waterstones and buy a book, which is also copyright, there is nothing to stop you selling that book to someone else when you have read it. This is one of those question I do not know the answer too but perhaps someone cleverer and wiser than me out there will. If you do let us know I am just interested. In fact I wonder whether you can actually copyright a horse racing system as such.
Enough of my ramblings, let’s get back to racing, just a couple of weeks to go before Cheltenham . This year there are 4 real short priced horses, Kauto Star,(Gold Cup), Master Minded(Queen Mother), Big Bucks(World Hurdle) and Dunguid (Supreme Novice). All 4 are currently odds on and William Hill are offering an 8/1 accumulator on them all winning. I think it would be a supreme act of faith to take this bet because I feel certain at least one of these will underperform. If I had to stick my neck out I would worry about Dunguids jumping holding up around this tricky course.
In two week’s time all eyes are going to be on Cheltenham, every column inch of the racing press will be full of tips, reviews and comments. Meanwhile over the four days there will be meetings at Sedgefield, Huntingdon,Hexham and Fakenham which will be largely ignored. Perhaps while everyone else is looking elsewhere it might be a chance to spot a few good things at these smaller meetings.
by Dave Bromley on March 1, 2010
I was cheered this morning to read that Bet365 have come up with a very good Cheltenham Offer for ante post punters. All bets from last Saturday will be on “no run, no bet” terms. Also if the starting price is greater than the price taken, they will pay you out at SP. William Hills are offering “no run, no bet” on Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle, the Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase, the Ladbrokes World Hurdle and the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup. It is nice to see that the current competition between the off and online bookies is working in our favour.
If you fancy going racing for free the following courses are throwing their gates open with no admission fee:
Monday April 26th Towcester and Wolverhampton
Tuesday April 27th Sedgefield Wednesday April 28th Ascot and Kempton.
That day Ascot will be staging The Sagaro Stakes (Group 3 race).
Monday April 26th Towcester and Wolverhampton.
Tuesday April 27th Sedgefield
Wednesday April 28th Ascot and Kempton
ThursdayApril 29th Huntingdon .
Friday 30th Doncaster .
Saturday 1st May Goodwood,
So why not go and have a free days racing.
My selection for the Racing Post Chase didn’t last very long when Fistral Beach blundered and unseated Ruby Walsh at the second. However, I was right about the going was going to make it tough at Chepstow. In the mares novice chase Ringsend Road 28/1 eventually finished alone when everything in front fell. Even so the connections had to wait for the result of a Stewards enquiry because the winner was sent around the third last fence to avoid an injured horse. In Kempton’s bumper the money continued to pile on to Victor Dartnell’s Shammick Boy and it went off as 7/2 favourite after opening at 16/1 earlier in the day. However, it was Dartnell’s other runner Mic’s Delight 20/1 who overturned the hot pot to win by 1¼ length. I suppose that’s racing.
Barry Dennis’s Bismark The Nightingalewas an easy winner at Kempton. After that win Paul Nicholls suggested that the horse may swerve the RSA at Cheltenham and instead be aimed at a race at the Grand National meeting. However, the trainer confirmed that no final decision had yet been made. As good as the performance was I am not sure that The Nightingale would be a good bet for the RSA.
