How to pick a Cheltenham winner

I do not know about you but my inbox has been full of Cheltenham related e-mails. It is a bit like Christmas the hullabaloo seems to start earlier each year. This may be in part due to the lack of quality racing this season  due mainly to the weather.

The usual clutch of “hot pots” seem to be dominating many peoples thoughts and of course there is always the Kauto Star v Denman  riddle to keep interest going. I have already written about the 4 odds on favourites, Kauto Star, Duguid, Mater Minded And Big Bucks. I feel certain that at least one of them will get turned over, but I just wish I knew which one it was going to be.

I have always considered that Cheltenham is all about jumping. This is an undulating course with some of the jumps being taken at speed going downhill. To be successful at Prestbury Park a horse does not only need to be a good jumper it also needs to be a quick one. This is why some very high quality horses are just not able to reproduce their normal form when they run there.

Another important factor in Cheltenham races is stamina, especially if the going is on the heavy side. With the stiff uphill finish on both the old and the new course a horse has to be able to see out the finish. So in theory all you have to do is find fast quick jumpers with bags of stamina and you will clean up at the Festival meeting. Oh, if it was only that simple!

As I write this Newbury has passed an inspection and both it and the Doncaster  meetings go ahead. There is one race at Doncaster which particularly interests me. It is the sportingbet.com Mares´ Handicap Hurdle a grade 3 race due to be run at 4.20. There are 2 horses that really catch the eye, La Sarrazine ridden by AP and Je Ne Sais Plus ridden by Sam Thomas. Both are course and distance winners, although in the latter’s case it was won in the stewards room. La Sarrazine is likely to start as favourite even though it is tackling handicap company for the first time.  I think it will be a fascinating race and although the females of the species are never the most reliable when it comes to form I am going to side with Je Ne Sais Plus to have just enough to see off the champion jockeys mount.