There is a really attractive race on the card at Newcastle today, the Northumberland Plate or “Pitmans Derby”. This two mile race has attracted a field of 21 runners and promises to be a really interesting race.
As I write this the Favourite Deauville Flyer from Tim Easterby’s yard is being well back and is currently 4.5 points clear of the second favourites and could quite possibly be even shorter before the race off time at 3.05. Now there is no doubt about Deauville Flyers ability and it may even win today but can you say that in a field such as there is today that 3/1 or 7/2 will really be a true representation of the horses chance?
If you look at the tipsters selections in the Racing Post today for this race you will see that out of the field of 21 runners the tipsters have selected 10 potential winners between them. This hardly seems to be reflected in the betting where a price of 5/1 or 6/1 would have seemed nearer the mark.
It is very easy to get swept along with the hype when the Racing Post features the horse on its front page; the Morning Line tips it and highlights the horse as the “market mover”. No doubt many
Punters will simply go with the flow and include the Flyer in their bets today. I am not going to say it can’t win it may well do but at its current odds it does not represent value for money.
Consider the trainers quote “Deauville Flyer should run very well. He has won on good-firm but ideally wants it good or slower.” Then also consider the fact that only 1 favourite has won the race in the last 10 years and that 7 of the last 10 winners were priced at 12/1 of greater. All of a sudden 3/1 or 7/2 may not seem such great value.
The Barry Dennis Bismark today is Himalya in the 2.00 at Newcastle. Todays Dee Dee Lay selections can be found at http://www.premierbettingclub.com. Some readers may have had trouble accessing th site on Internet Explorer or AOL but we are working on the problem. It appears to be working fine on the Firefox browser.
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